Win probabilities built from five data layers: live bookmaker consensus, recent team form, head-to-head records, venue statistics and advanced match metrics including expected goals. Covering 15 sports, updated every 30 seconds. 18+ | Gamble responsibly.
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The percentage you see on every GemPlay prediction card is not simply a conversion of the bookmaker's price into a probability. That approach, used by many sites, reproduces the market's view and nothing more. It also carries the bookmaker's overround, meaning the implied probabilities sum to more than 100% and systematically skew the numbers in the house's favour.
GemPlay strips the overround first, then layers in four additional data sources before producing a final probability. The result is a composite score that reflects both market pricing and the underlying statistical reality of the fixture. Where the market and the data agree, the probability will be close to the pure odds-based figure. Where they diverge, the composite probability may differ significantly from what the bookmaker is offering.
All five layers are calibrated against verified historical match outcomes across each sport and competition type. The weighting differs by sport: in football, xG data carries significant weight because it is a well-validated predictor of future results. In horse racing, course-and-distance records and going preferences carry more weight. In MMA, the stylistic matchup coefficient is the most sport-specific adjustment applied to any GemPlay model.
Football is GemPlay's most comprehensive prediction category, covering over 200 competitions across six continents. The win probability model for football is built on five data inputs: bookmaker consensus odds updated every 30 seconds, each team's form across the last five matches weighted by recency, head-to-head records segmented by home and away venues, venue-specific home advantage coefficients, and expected goals (xG) data from verified statistics providers.
Football cards are the only sport on GemPlay to carry predicted match statistics alongside the win probability. For matches where sufficient historical data exists, each card shows the predicted final score, predicted corners per team, predicted yellow cards per team and a predicted red card indicator. These projections use the referee's season booking rate, each team's season average fouls and yellows, and xG-adjusted attacking and defensive strength ratings.
English football coverage runs from the Premier League through to the National League. European coverage includes all five major leagues plus the three UEFA club competitions. International fixture coverage includes World Cup qualification, continental championships and the UEFA Nations League.
Cricket prediction methodology accounts for the unique complexity of the format. For T20 matches, the model processes recent batting and bowling form across the last ten T20 fixtures, the venue's average first innings total updated after every match at that ground, pitch condition reports where available, and the head-to-head record specifically in T20 cricket. For ODI and Test cricket the same inputs apply but weighting shifts heavily toward batting depth and starting XI quality.
IPL coverage includes every group stage and knockout fixture from the point odds open. The Hundred, Big Bash League, SA20 and Caribbean Premier League are also covered. Win probability updates live during the match based on the current run rate against the par score model.
Tennis prediction accuracy depends heavily on surface performance, and GemPlay's model splits each player's win percentage by surface type. A player with a strong hard court record but a weak clay record will have their probability adjusted accordingly when the tournament surface changes. Head-to-head records are also weighted by surface, so a rivalry played predominantly on grass is treated differently to one split evenly across surfaces.
Additional inputs include current form over the last eight matches, ranking trajectory over the past 26 weeks, first-serve percentage, return game win percentage, and a physical load indicator based on days since last match and rounds contested in the previous event. All four Grand Slams, Masters 1000, ATP 500 and WTA Premier events are fully covered.
NBA predictions incorporate net rating (combined offensive and defensive efficiency differential per 100 possessions), pace of play, home court advantage adjusted per arena, and rest day differentials since back-to-back fatigue is a quantifiable factor in NBA performance. Moneyline, spread and total points lines from all six bookmakers are shown on every card.
EuroLeague and FIBA international competitions receive the same treatment with competition-specific recalibrations. In European basketball the home court advantage coefficient is substantially larger than in the NBA, which is reflected in how probabilities are calculated for knockout fixtures.
NHL predictions use Corsi (shot attempt differential at 5v5) and Fenwick percentage as the primary possession metrics alongside goals for and against per 60 minutes. Goaltender save percentage over the last 20 games is a major input because NHL results are heavily influenced by goaltending variance. The model also accounts for the back-to-back schedule effect, which in the NHL is pronounced due to travel across multiple time zones.
KHL and Swedish Hockey League coverage uses adjusted metrics where possession data is less granular. European championship and World Championship fixtures are included for all 12 months of the season.
MMA win probability calculation is more complex than team sports because each bout involves two athletes with entirely different skill sets. GemPlay's MMA model uses a multi-dimensional fighter profile tracking striking accuracy and output, takedown accuracy and defence rate, submission attempt rate, knockout percentage and win streak trajectory. The model then applies a style matchup coefficient: a high-output striker with weak takedown defence facing an elite wrestler will have their probability adjusted downward relative to their raw striking record.
UFC main card and preliminary card coverage is complete, with odds updated from open through to fight week as late changes such as injuries or weight misses impact the consensus. Bellator and ONE Championship coverage is included for all major events.
PDC darts prediction inputs include each player's three-dart average over the last 20 competitive legs, 180 rate, first nine darts average (the strongest indicator of a player in form), checkout percentage on doubles, and their record specifically at the venue being used. In major events like Alexandra Palace for the World Championship or the Motorpoint Arena for the Premier League, venue-specific performance history adds a measurable edge for certain players.
Premier League Darts, PDC World Championship, World Matchplay, Grand Prix and World Grand Prix are all covered from the first round draw. Form-based probabilities adjust weekly as players compete in ranking events between television tournaments.
Golf outright and head-to-head predictions use the Official World Golf Ranking as the baseline, then apply course-fit adjustments based on the profile of each course versus each player's strengths. A player who ranks highly in driving distance but struggles with accuracy will be rated lower at a tight, tree-lined course than their ranking alone would suggest. A precision iron player who putts well will be rated higher at a traditional links course where ball-striking and course management dominate.
PGA Tour, DP World Tour, LIV Golf and all four Major championships are covered. Major championship coverage includes ten years of historical data to identify long-form Major specialists whose regular tour form understates their ability on the biggest stage.
Snooker prediction inputs include each player's ranking points from the last 26 events, frame win percentage over the last 20 ranked matches, centuries per match average, and their historical record in that specific competition format. The model treats best-of-seven, best-of-eleven and best-of-nineteen formats separately because some players' games suit longer formats significantly better.
World Championship coverage begins at the first qualifying round through every Crucible session. The Masters at Alexandra Palace, UK Championship and all other ranking events on the World Snooker Tour calendar are included from the moment the draw is made.
Boxing prediction methodology accounts for the stylistic nature of the sport. Beyond basic record and KO percentage, the model considers reach and height differentials, punch output per round, punch landing percentage, the trainer's tactical tendencies, and the weight division's historical knockout rate versus decision rate. A bout between two high-output brawlers in lightweight carries a very different probability profile to a heavyweight clash between a puncher and a technical counter-puncher.
World title fight coverage spans all four major governing bodies (WBA, WBC, IBF, WBO). British domestic boxing, including domestic titles, British, Commonwealth and European championship bouts promoted by Matchroom, MTK and Boxxer, is included where bookmaker odds are available.
Esports prediction data is sourced from official tournament APIs and verified match history platforms. For CS2, the model uses each team's recent map win percentage per individual map, round win percentage on T and CT sides separately, pistol round conversion rate, and ELO rating trajectory over the last 90 days. Map veto patterns are factored in when the pool is known, giving a significant prediction edge in best-of-three matches.
For League of Legends and Dota 2, the model incorporates patch version adjustments because meta shifts can substantially alter team strengths. CS2 Major coverage, League of Legends Worlds, LEC, LCS, Dota 2 International and Valorant Champions Tour are all covered from group stages through to grand finals.
Rugby union prediction inputs include each team's points scored and conceded per match over the last six fixtures, home and away record in the current competition, international player availability windows and their impact on club squads, and altitude or travel adjustments for fixtures involving southern hemisphere teams. The model applies a separate coefficient for knockout rugby versus regular season, as pressure and selection changes in knockout rounds produce different performance patterns.
Gallagher Premiership, United Rugby Championship, Top 14, Champions Cup, Challenge Cup and all Tier 1 international fixtures are covered. Six Nations and Rugby World Cup receive full tournament coverage from the group draw through to the final.
Horse racing predictions are built from the most complete form data available in the sport. Each runner's rating derives from their official BHA rating, last three performance figures relative to race class, going preference (heavy, soft, good, firm) compared to forecast going at the track, course-and-distance record, draw bias at that course over the last three seasons, and trainer and jockey combination performance statistics.
Daily coverage spans all British and Irish Grade/Group fixtures, Cheltenham Festival, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood, the Grand National meeting, Champions Day and all major Sunday cards. International coverage includes Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Breeders' Cup and major Australian and Dubai fixtures.
EHF Champions League handball predictions incorporate attack efficiency (goals scored per possession), defence efficiency (goals conceded per possession), fast break conversion rate, goalkeeper save percentage over the current season, and home advantage coefficients which are among the largest in team sports due to the intensity of major handball arenas.
German Bundesliga, Spanish ASOBAL, French Starligue and SEHA League coverage supplement the Champions League with domestic competition. World Championship and European Championship coverage includes tournament-specific model adjustments for the compressed schedule format.
Formula 1 prediction methodology uses constructor performance data per track type (street circuit, permanent circuit, high-speed, high-downforce), driver qualifying pace relative to teammate over the last ten races, strategic pit stop and tyre compound modelling, and weather probability inputs for wet and dry race conditions. Qualifying predictions are shown separately from race predictions with different model weights applied because F1 results are heavily influenced by starting position.
MotoGP coverage uses track-specific rider form data and tyre supplier inputs. World Rally Championship predictions incorporate surface type, stage characteristics and manufacturer allocation models. All F1 race weekends from Free Practice 2 onwards are covered, as are all MotoGP rounds and WRC events.
GemPlay aggregates pricing from six UKGC-licensed bookmakers: Bet365, Betano, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Coral and Unibet. All six hold active licences from the UK Gambling Commission, meaning they operate under strict rules on fair play, customer protection, responsible gambling tools and financial security. GemPlay does not list, link to or recommend any unlicensed operator.
On each prediction card, the best available odds across all six bookmakers are displayed alongside the composite win probability. This lets you compare the market's price against GemPlay's model and make an informed decision. Odds change constantly, and the best price at the time the card last refreshed may not reflect the price at the time you place a bet.
For a full review of each bookmaker's welcome offer, features and app quality, visit the best betting sites UK page, where we cover bonus terms, wagering requirements and payment methods for all six operators.
Prediction data becomes most useful in combination with live match information. GemPlay's live scores section covers the same 15 sports as predictions, updating in real time during play. As a match progresses, the bookmaker odds on prediction cards shift to reflect the live situation, meaning the win probability five minutes into a match can look very different to the pre-match figure if an early goal or wicket has already changed the picture.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. GemPlay does not provide financial or investment advice. Always bet responsibly. Only gamble what you can afford to lose. Visit BeGambleAware.org for support. 18+